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The Movie Hole

Box Office Weekend Predictions - May 16-18 (Updated, with Actuals)

JJ Mortimer

The new "Godzilla" is going to destroy the competition and New York City this weekend, and probably steal your girlfriends and eat your babies.  He's that awesome.

The new "Godzilla" is going to destroy the competition and New York City this weekend, and probably steal your girlfriends and eat your babies.  He's that awesome.

PREDICTIONS for the WEEKEND ending 05/18 (now with ACTUALS included):

1) Godzilla - $86.5 million / $93.2 million

2) Neighbors - $26 million / $25.1 million

3) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $17 million / $16.8 million

4)  Million Dollar Arm - $14 million / $10.5 million

*Final entry:  "Godzilla" outperformed many industry insider's expectations, having the second best opening weekend of the year so far (besting even "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" by nearly $2 million on its opening weekend, and in 400 fewer theaters).  The Cinemascore of a B+ shows that fans were entertained but mostly not blown away, so the film could see sharp drops in coming weekends.  The new "X-Men" film will probably steal about 2/3 of "Godzilla" business, but a domestic finish of over $200 million is not out of question for the giant lizard.

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*Pre-"Godzilla" weekend editorial:

Godzilla will destroy the competition this weekend, partly due to the fact that there is very little in the way of competition.  "Neighbors" did really well last weekend, but is far from the kind of popcorn summer flick people will come to expect from "Godzilla."  "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" took a huge dump in its second weekend (pun intended), and is expected to fade quickly into the obscurity of other useless reboots/sequels.

Many analysts are putting "Godzilla" in the $65-75 million range for its domestic opening weekend.  I'm shooting high on this one - there have been a lot of surprises this year so far, with many films opening larger than expected.  Considering the successful ad campaigns and the promise of a Godzilla monster that is more in line with the original Japanese classic (and less in line with the '98 Roland Emmerich disaster), I'm putting my prediction closer to $85 million.

Currently, Rotten Tomatoes has certified the film as "fresh" with a 78%, which bodes well for its future.  If the Cinemascore can be in the A- range, we will potentially be looking at a "Godzilla" film raking in north of $200 million domestic.

Also opening is a Disney film about foreign kids playing baseball, or something.  Anyone reading this is probably not interested in that film.  Oh, it's called "Million Dollar Arm".