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The Movie Hole

Box Office Weekend Predictions - May 23-25/26 (Updated, with Actuals)

JJ Mortimer

Wolverine is still angry that he has to wear that drab, colorless body suit instead of the awesome brown-shaded one he wore in the comics.

Wolverine is still angry that he has to wear that drab, colorless body suit instead of the awesome brown-shaded one he wore in the comics.

ACTUALS / PREDICTIONS for the Weekend ending (Monday) May 26:

1) "X-Men: Days of Future Past" - $110.6 million / $130 million (prediction - a bit under, but still a significant improvement over both previous "Wolverine"-centric Marvel films)

2) "Godzilla" - $38.4 million / $51 million (prediction - looks like a lot of fans saw the film opening weekend, not much demand for future)

3) "Blended" - $18.2 million / $42 million (prediction - fucked that one up)

4) "Neighbors" - $17.2 million / $18 million (pretty damn close)

5) "The Amazing Spider-Asshole 2" - $10.01 million / $10 million (on the money for that piece of shit)

 

PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN (pre-weekend)

Memorial Day weekend used to signify the official start of the "summer movie season."  In years past, that day has expanded all the way back into April in some cases, even with this year seeing the gargantuan opening of Marvel's "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" on the weekend of April 4-6.  For some, the end of May is an exciting time, an enlightening time, when the movies we've seen previews of for the past few months are finally coming out.

More times than I can remember, those previews for summer movies have been FAR better (and far more promising) than the actual films themselves.  This time around, we have been getting spoiled, as films like "Captain America" and "Godzilla" are not only performing well at the box office, but are performing well with the critics (which is also a rare occasion). 

As of right now, "X-Men: Days of Future Past" is ranking in a whopping 91% fresh as of this writing on Rotten Tomatoes, and is projecting one of the largest opening weekends for the film franchise (the Brett Ratner shit-stain, "X-Men: The Last Stand", currently holds the three-day record with $102 million back in 2006).  Many sources have the film opening at around $100-110 million for the four day weekend (with about $90 million coming in over the first three days for the actual weekend gross).

Again, much like my prediction on the opening of "Godzilla", I'm seeing the X-Men crew opening much larger than insiders are anticipating.  While I don't see the film still captivating the movie-going public's imagination as much as, say, the "Dark Knight" franchise, I do see it performing the best so far among all the other "X-Men" films (and above the "Captain America" and "Thor" films).  With returning cast members from both the original "X-Men" films AND the fantastic "X-Men: First Class" (James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender made that film much better than it should have been), I see fans giving the franchise another shot.  With original creator Bryan Singer at the helm, I expect good things, and can easily see "X-Men: Days of Future Past" raking in $115 million for the three-day weekend, and $130 for the four-day Memorial Day weekend.

Also, some Adam Sandler movie called "Blended" with Drew Barrymore is opening, but who gives a shit?  I see a lot of the "date movie" crowd going for "X-Men" over another dry, family-friendly Adam Sandler comedy any day.  But, because most film goers are stupid (and guys want their girls to be excited AFTER the movie is over), the movie could make about $40 million for the four-day weekend.

Meanwhile, "Godzilla" will hold on decently, but will see a sharp drop in attendance as both competition and up-front demand will drain its future grosses significantly.  For the four-day weekend, I see the monster movie piling in roughly another $50 million.