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The Movie Hole

Box Office Predictions - June 12-14

JJ Mortimer

OPENING THIS WEEKEND

The R-rated 22 Jump Street  and the PG-rated How to Train Your Dragon 2 are both sequels to two very popular and successful movies - and both films couldn't be more different.  The good side to this from a snotty business perspective is that neither film will take much competition away from the other.  Jump Street will nail the young adult crowds mostly on Friday night, while Dragon will get the parents and children on Saturday and Sunday days.

Both of the well-reviewed films will succeed past their predecessors easily, but I see How to Train Your Dragon 2 coming out ultimately on top due to all the graduated school kids wanting their first taste of movie summer.  But, 22 Jump Street will be close behind with an equally large amount of college cheerleader-banging cash.

Last week's winner, The Fault in Our Stars, will drop quite a bit especially considering the majority of its fan base saw it opening DAY.  Maleficent will see a similar large drop due to the theater screen theft of the dragon cartoon, but none will be hit harder than Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow.  The film will be "jumped" by the new competition, leaving the film to find most of its success from foreign markets.

Other films from last weekend's Top 10 will begin to fade into box-office obscurity, making room for the true, official start of the summer "popcorn movie" season.

PREDICTIONS:

1)  "How to Train Your Dragon 2" - $72 million

2)  "22 Jump Street" - $55 million

3)  "The Fault in Our Stars" - $21 million

4)  "Maleficent" - $17 million

5)  "Edge of Tomorrow" - $13.5 million

6)  "X-Men: Days of Future Past" - $7.2 million

7)  "A Million Ways to Die in the West" - $4.1 million

8)  "Neighbors" - $3.6 million

9)  "Godzilla" - $3.2 million

10)  "Blended" - $2.1 million

There will be a lot of money to go around this weekend, so some of the older films won't dive too much.  The only reason they might would be because of the near record-breaking number of theaters that How to Train Your Dragon 2 is opening up on.  That, and with a new R-rated comedy for summer audiences to focus on, everyone's eyes will be queued on tomorrow and not the films of yesterday.  Because God forbid something good may have opened in May.