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The Movie Hole

Box Office Predictions - June 20-22

JJ Mortimer

What a boring-ass weekend for new movies.  Granted, I would like to see Jersey Boys mainly because it's a Clint Eastwood-directed picture, but there isn't any real excitement or energy that gets me off my ass to go see it.  Also, we are graced with a sequel nobody wanted in Think Like a Man Too which, which is surprising because all the people who don't give a shit about it are going to see it anyway and it will make a killing in the process.

The real success this weekend will be in the holdovers as 22 Jump Street keeps a tab on the adult comedy crowd, and How to Train Your Dragon remains the only real kids movie on the market.  Both films will have dips, but Dragon will hold on better making second place a photo finish.

Think Like a Man opened in April of 2012 to a surprising (or not surprising) $33 million from roughly 2,000 theaters.  The sequel will do roughly the same and open in first place, considering it is only opening in just a couple hundred more theaters than the first.  I can see this film performing a little better, only because that's just how sequels that don't have giant robots ALSO perform.

Jersey Boys will have kind of a niche crowd attached to it.  The stage show has been pretty popular, and Clint Eastwood is a fantastic film maker.  The previews also highlight the unique narrative style, which kind of emulates a Goodfellas style and feel.  The downside is that with the seven films he's directed since Million Dollar Baby, only Gran Torino (the only film he also starred in) has opened above $11 million.  Jersey Boys will have to settle for a hard-fought fourth place.

 

PREDICTIONS for this weekend:

1)  "Think Like a Man Too" - $38 million

2)  "22 Jump Street" - $30 million

3)  "How to Train Your Dragon 2" - $29.5 million

4)  "Jersey Boys" - $16.5 million

5)  "Maleficent" - $9.8 million

6)  "Edge of Tomorrow" - $8.5 million

7) "The Fault in Our Stars" - $7.1 million

 

SUMMARY: 

This is the calm before the storm that is to be the next Transformers film.  Smaller films tend to open on weekends such as this as to give a wide birth to giant summer popcorn flicks that typically will steal hundreds of millions of dollars before anyone really notices just how shitty the movie is.