This week I want to continue my trend of releasing my box office predictions before I can see what the major box office news sites are predicting. Two out of three weekends now I shot my numbers higher than many had projected on the major opening movie, and I came out pretty damn close (my guesses on "Maleficent" and "Godzilla" were very close, while many professional analysts were, in some cases, about $20 million short on both accounts).
But, don't let that make you think I'm any good at this shit. Even though I predicted correctly the openings of two movies, I was only marginally close to my "X-Men: Days of Future Past" opening, and WAY off on my call that "A Million Ways to Die in the West" would be one of the best-opening westerns of all time. Compared to his "Ted", MacFarlane's hand at western comedy could already (unfortunately) be considered a bomb.
Either way, this weekend I'm going to play it safe. The new Tom Cruise flick, "Edge of Tomorrow", has been advertized and marketed to look like a cross-breed of last year's "Elysium" and 1997s "Starship Troopers." The sci-fi element also echoes last year's other minor hit from Tom Cruise, "Oblivion." Later commercials have also drawn comparisons to "Groundhog Day" in its repeating cycle theme.
With all of that information in mind, and given it's aggressive marketing campaign that seems to hinge completely on Tom Cruise and some cool looking power armor, I'm going to project an opening above "Elysium" and "Oblivion", and put it somewhere near the $55 million range.
Some other movie is opening up that looks like typical "Notebook"-rip off fare, titled "The Fault in Our Stars". I know nothing about this movie other than it's another love story based on a book involving cancer. I couldn't give a shit about it, but for fun's sake I'm going to say it will open around $20 million because young people are stupid and fall for movies that have posters of seemingly unemployed young people lying in grass and staring lovingly into each others' eyes. Nothing exciting, but fuck if it won't make a few bucks. And building love stories around tragic material ALWAYS works....
Last week's winner "Maleficent" will fall a little, but will aim for a strong second place finish. Dropping about 50% and with no other children's competition, the movie could earn roughly $35-45 million. "X-Men: Days of Future Past" has been receiving really good reviews from both critics and fans, but that hasn't stopped it from dropping significantly in its weekly numbers. With Tom Cruise competition, the film could get another $17 million. "A Million Ways to Die in the West" will eat a piece of shit for breakfast, and crash down to about $8 million in only its second week of release. The sad part is the film will likely end its run with a domestic box office take that is lower than the opening weekend of MacFarlane's last film, "Ted."
PREDICTIONS: (Bold titles are opening this weekend)
1) "Edge of Tomorrow" - $56 million
2) "Maleficent" - $41 million (2nd weekend)
3) "The Fault in Our Stars" - a sappy $19 million
4) "X-Men: Days of Future Past" - $17 million (3rd weekend)
5) "A Million Ways to Die in the West" - $7.5 million (2nd weekend)
6) "Godzilla" - $7.5 million (4th weekend)
Overall, "Edge of Tomorrow" will end up being a bigger hit oversees than it will in the U.S. (much like many Tom Cruise films), but we will still have to wait a week or two (after the World Cup) before we finally see a crushing, gigantic opening from a movie.