Entering this weekend, the new Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles film (in an version that no true fan wanted to see) is getting understandably terrible reviews. What I didn't expect was that quite a few critics are calling the film "dull" and the characters "interchangeable", meaning that a damn Transformer could take the spot of Leonardo or Michelangelo and nobody would know the fucking difference.
Either way, the turtles have their hands full with a film in Guardians of the Galaxy that was ALSO surprising in its reviews, but in that they are some of the best reviews of the year so far. Word-of-mouth has been fantastic, which leads me to believe (and judging by history) that many people who were not originally sold will give the film a try this weekend (its second).
Most insiders are calling for a modest/decent 55% drop, but I see Guardians holding up better than that with about a 49% drop, giving it a second weekend take of around $46-47 million. Meanwhile, I see a general lack of interest in Turtles, making it difficult to see too much more than a front-loaded Friday night. My prediction is a strong second place finish, with about $39-40 million, but with a steep crash in its second weekend.
Also meanwhile, there's a Twister ripoff titled Into the Storm with no big stars in it, that looks no better than a Discovery channel mockumentary. It seriously looks like a more depressing version of A Perfect Storm, which is difficult because you actually cared about the crew members of the Andrea Gale, while the actors appearing in Into the Storm will just illicit depression based on the fact we just paid for something that we've seen better (for free) on the Sci-Fi channel.
Don't get me started on what seems like the ninth Step Up movie. This franchise should have been straight-to-video about two films ago.
1) Guardians of the Galaxy - $46.5 million (-49%)
2) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $39.3 million
3) Into the Storm - $15 million
4) Step Up: All In - $10.9 million
5) Lucy - $9.1 million